Un único periodo de confinamiento no bastará para detener a la COVID-19. Será necesario implementar varias etapas de distanciamiento social hasta el año 2022, si se quiere evitar el colapso de los hospitales a la vez que se extiende la inmunidad entre la población.
Esta es una de las conclusiones de un estudio que se ha publicado este martes en la revista « Science» y que ha sido elaborado por científicos de la prestigiosa universidad de Harvard (EE.UU.). A través de simulaciones por ordenador, y gracias a datos de Estados Unidos y de otros coronavirus, los investigadores han asumido que probablemente la COVID-19 se convertirá en una enfermedad estacional que se endurecerá en los meses fríos, y que la normalidad no llegará hasta dentro de un año y medio. Los tratamientos y vacunas serán los que permitan relajar y acortar los periodos de confinamiento definitivamente.
«Hemos descubierto que un solo periodo de distanciamiento social es probablemente insuficiente para mantener la incidencia del SARS-CoV-2 dentro de los límites del sistema sanitario en Estados Unidos», ha dicho para AFP Stephen Kissler, director de la investigación, en una teleconferencia. «Lo que parece ser necesario, en ausencia de tratamientos, es aplicar periodos intermitentes de distanciamiento social».
La importancia de los tests masivos
Los autores también han dicho que será necesario llevar a cabo un testeo extenso de la población para saber cuándo es conveniente volver a activar la medidas de distanciamiento, y mantener la presión sobre los hospitales en niveles adecuados.
Pero no solo eso. En opinión de Marc Lipsitch, coautor del trabajo, estos periodos de transmisión «permitirán acelerar la adquisicion de la inmunidad de grupo». De hecho, los modelos empleados por los autores muestran que un distanciamiento social permanente «es tan efectivo que virtualmente no aumenta nada la inmunidad de la población», han escrito en el estudio.
Incertidumbre sobre la inmunidad
En todo caso, estas conclusiones han de interpretarse con cautela, dada la incertidumbre que rodea a varios factores. Lo más fundamental es que todavía se desconoce qué nivel de inmunidad confiere una infección y cuánto tiempo dura.
En este momento, y teniendo en cuenta el comportamiento de los otros coronavirus, se cree que una infección confiere cierta inmunidad durante alrededor de un año. También se baraja que los coronavirus causantes de los catarros puedan conferir cierto grado de protección.
Dada toda esta incertidumbre, los autores han recomendado hacer estudios serológicos (de anticuerpos) para determinar la extensión y la duración de la inmunidad.
«Incluso en el caso de una aparente eliminación del virus», han escrito los autores, «el sondeo del SARS-CoV-2 debería ser mantenido puesto que es posible que vuelva a aparecer hasta tan tarde como 2024».
En todo caso, consideran bastante seguro que el virus ha venido para quedarse y que es altamente improbable que desaparezca después de esta primera oleada. Parece que la vacuna será el arma definitiva.
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